“They saw their injured country's woe;
The flaming town, the wasted field;
Then rushed to meet the insulting foe;
They took the spear, - but left the shield.”
―Philip Freneau
.
And by a prudent flight and cunning save A life which valour could not, from the grave. A better buckler I can soon regain, But who can get another life again?
Archilochus
Thursday, April 9, 2026
Empire Strategies and the Thucydides Trap
Meden Agan!
17 comments:
Anonymous
said...
\\Fireside Chat with Dr. Chris Scolese, Director, National Reconnaissance Office
Do you want me to give my comments on it? As technologist ;-p
No, no need, that was all PR. I worked for Chris when he ran the Earth Observing System Program (EOS) at NASA. That was (3) $1b satellites (Terra/ Aqua/ Aura) and a Ground/Observer System. I worked on Instruments, the 2nd bus (Aura) and the GIS ground system. He went on to becoming Chief Engineer for NASA at HQ, and eventually Acting NASA Administrator, as well as GSFC Center Director.
"" 00:00 I had and I still have a tremendous amount of persistence once I get on a puzzle I can't get off I mean if she had told me never mind it's too much work I'd have blown my top because I want to beat this damn thing""
Yeah. Totally my feelings. This idea... is a puzzle. Very interesting puzzle to solve. Indeed.
Well. For at least, about that myth of high ground.
It's enough to be higher for an inch.
Like in ww dogfights -- it was enough to have dozen more km of speed.
Or yet previously... just somewhat better guns.
Because, it is quite fun to have "we have machine guns... and they not"
But in real world, and not strategic fantasies... ehm, multiverse, if you are too owerwhelming -- it makes your adversary to choose methods against which you are not that strong (that same british battleships against german uboats)
All my ideation have a big problem. But, of a natural kind.
It's freakingly impossible to predict real world engineering landscape.
Like take for example overly detailed and live depiction of submarine by Jule Vern. He even proposed seamingly possible source of energy for it. So? What if there really was easily excavated mineral under water, as straightforward source of electricity? Would Vern-like "Nautilus" be possible?
Well, but he added some morw incredulous details... to spice up his story? or that just level of self-deception he had? That some tech breakthroughs can come from unusual places...
so, what is reality, and what is fantasy??? while we do not stand before a board with drafts... with a mere pencil trembling in our hand? moment when even that trembling... even unst#ady-drawn line can be a source of insight...
There... is no source of infornation I know, that woukd reveal -- what kind of magic happens then...
\\why doesnt it simply answer Kekulé’s question with something like: “Kekulé, it’s a bloody ring.” To which our scientist might respond: “Okay. Got it. Thanks.”
\\Why the snake? That is, why is the unconscious so loathe to speak to us? Why the images, metaphors, pictures?
Totally not a mistery for me. Cause, we thinking in 3d And our language are 1d. As I have said. We programmers struggle with it all of the time.
And did came up with structures that need to represent that metaphors and etc. Well, nor much successfully. But srill, it works... somehow
We think in 5D... sight, smell, taste, hearing, and touch. Language iranslates between them, with hearing dominant (as opposed to the natural way... co-location.... which I suppose formed the basis for "logic".
What needed to launch probe into space? It need to have propultion system, isn,t it? And then, control and navigation system. And obviously a communication system, as previous ones would be useless without it.
And that all built each time from scratch. Which means skyrocketing costs each time.
And that... because modern wonders like GPS and Internet... are not available in space. Yawn.
But what if they'd do? What if we'd have space depots here and there. And wholethrough communication system...
then, probes can be just a delivered package... like things called "nanosatelites" today.
Well, that same problem with everything maritime. Well, our ships for the ocean can be much bigger then spaceships. And carry a lot of stuff.
But.
With oceanic GPS, so to say, it would be omni-presence and even ability to build everything in-place...
Dunno... maybe you feel that I trying to dismiss your efforts, with my previous... ehm, outburst? :-\
While I just trying to find a place for it inside bigger picture. As part of a whole puzzle.
Like... you have experience of working in big organizations. Much bigger than anything I did. And you have first hand understanding -- how it consist if many-many different people. And each one have own concerns. Like hydravlics engineer, his liquids to not leak and be spilled everywhere.) While electricity engineer brawling against electrocutting hazard. But same time, there is a lawyer, which naggung everyone so that all needed papers woukd be done right. Isn't it?
And that'll be a big problem in itself. Problem that rendering whole system non-working, if there'd be a discord in-between everybody involved...
17 comments:
\\Fireside Chat with Dr. Chris Scolese, Director, National Reconnaissance Office
Do you want me to give my comments on it?
As technologist ;-p
No, no need, that was all PR. I worked for Chris when he ran the Earth Observing System Program (EOS) at NASA. That was (3) $1b satellites (Terra/ Aqua/ Aura) and a Ground/Observer System. I worked on Instruments, the 2nd bus (Aura) and the GIS ground system. He went on to becoming Chief Engineer for NASA at HQ, and eventually Acting NASA Administrator, as well as GSFC Center Director.
Well... wouldn't it make it more int... ehm, entertaining. Profi commented on by some neet. )))))
""
00:00
I had and I still have a tremendous amount of persistence once I get on a puzzle I can't get off I mean if she had told me never mind it's too much work I'd have blown my top because I want to beat this damn thing""
Yeah.
Totally my feelings.
This idea... is a puzzle.
Very interesting puzzle to solve. Indeed.
Feynman's a hoot!
It's also what I hated about my old job. You can't turn off the puzzles when the whistle blows to go home. :((((
But you tend to wake up in the morning with some interesting solutions. :)))
;p
yeah...
Well. For at least, about that myth of high ground.
It's enough to be higher for an inch.
Like in ww dogfights -- it was enough to have dozen more km of speed.
Or yet previously... just somewhat better guns.
Because, it is quite fun to have "we have machine guns... and they not"
But in real world, and not strategic fantasies... ehm, multiverse, if you are too owerwhelming -- it makes your adversary to choose methods against which you are not that strong (that same british battleships against german uboats)
Giving it round around.
All my ideation have a big problem. But, of a natural kind.
It's freakingly impossible to predict real world engineering landscape.
Like take for example overly detailed and live depiction of submarine by Jule Vern.
He even proposed seamingly possible source of energy for it.
So?
What if there really was easily excavated mineral under water, as straightforward source of electricity?
Would Vern-like "Nautilus" be possible?
Well, but he added some morw incredulous details... to spice up his story? or that just level of self-deception he had?
That some tech breakthroughs can come from unusual places...
so, what is reality, and what is fantasy???
while we do not stand before a board with drafts... with a mere pencil trembling in our hand?
moment when even that trembling... even unst#ady-drawn line can be a source of insight...
There... is no source of infornation I know, that woukd reveal -- what kind of magic happens then...
to build-up my breadcrumbing on it.
\\why doesnt it simply answer Kekulé’s question with something like: “Kekulé, it’s a bloody ring.” To which our scientist might respond: “Okay. Got it. Thanks.”
\\Why the snake? That is, why is the unconscious so loathe to speak to us? Why the images, metaphors, pictures?
Totally not a mistery for me.
Cause, we thinking in 3d
And our language are 1d.
As I have said.
We programmers struggle with it all of the time.
And did came up with structures that need to represent that metaphors and etc.
Well, nor much successfully. But srill, it works... somehow
We think in 5D... sight, smell, taste, hearing, and touch. Language iranslates between them, with hearing dominant (as opposed to the natural way... co-location.... which I suppose formed the basis for "logic".
Have you heard about Flatland?
Or more general -- about topology?
Thing is... low dimention (like 2d, 1d) limiting possible combinations.
Well, for language that is actually a blessing... allow to pack senses tightly.
But same time are The Curse Of Tersiness.
Yawn.
Yes, I read Flatland a few years ago...
But do you get it how it relates with that same Godel Incomplitness?
How it creates superficial limitations?
What needed to launch probe into space?
It need to have propultion system, isn,t it?
And then, control and navigation system.
And obviously a communication system, as previous ones would be useless without it.
And that all built each time from scratch. Which means skyrocketing costs each time.
And that... because modern wonders like GPS and Internet... are not available in space.
Yawn.
But what if they'd do?
What if we'd have space depots here and there. And wholethrough communication system...
then, probes can be just a delivered package... like things called "nanosatelites" today.
Well, that same problem with everything maritime.
Well, our ships for the ocean can be much bigger then spaceships. And carry a lot of stuff.
But.
With oceanic GPS, so to say, it would be omni-presence and even ability to build everything in-place...
Dunno... maybe you feel that I trying to dismiss your efforts, with my previous... ehm, outburst? :-\
While I just trying to find a place for it inside bigger picture. As part of a whole puzzle.
Like... you have experience of working in big organizations. Much bigger than anything I did.
And you have first hand understanding -- how it consist if many-many different people. And each one have own concerns.
Like hydravlics engineer, his liquids to not leak and be spilled everywhere.)
While electricity engineer brawling against electrocutting hazard.
But same time, there is a lawyer, which naggung everyone so that all needed papers woukd be done right.
Isn't it?
And that'll be a big problem in itself. Problem that rendering whole system non-working, if there'd be a discord in-between everybody involved...
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