Everything We Think We Know is Wrong... Learn to Become Anti-Fragile!

28:30-33:15

So and here I have convexity effect in French and English. 

So the English is, don't cross a river that's on average four feet deep. Always bear in mind second-order effects. In the French, a convex function of an average, not the average of a convex function. Right and the Jensen's inequality or variations around it that I work with. Alright so

This is pretty much the response of the coffee cup. It has it is concave until it breaks. And then you know you can't break a coffee cup that's broken all right. so it doesn't it don't care as I say so you have everything it has nonlinearities at our local up to a point you benefit from uncertainty in a convex part and a concave one you don't. 

This another biblical thing is the Tower of Babel. All right. Bush now is Baghdad suburbs of Baghdad or they have Isis and so alright, so they had the idea, that when you build something very big it's more fragile than a lot of small houses. 

Okay so we continue why fragility is necessarily second order effect, with some intuition, and I am pulling this from the book because it seems to me that what interest speople the most is that you carry you work you worry more of a second-order effect than the first-order effect when you are very fragile okay by definition what's concave:

and here we have an example if you have grandmother... and you know she spent 48 hours at 70 degrees temperature you're very happy for her no. But if someone tells you 70 degrees on average but one day was zero degrees and the next day 140 degrees, you're not going to be very happy for your grandmother. Okay so you realize that the second-order effect dominates the first-order effect on your fragile, and that's one thing that's not very present in discourse.

Okay that when you start fragility and there's a second-order effect and we can see immediately what dominates the first-order effect okay. So, this is the s-curve in nature okay where you start at some level, you go up and notice what? That everything in nature that has an s-curve whose response has a phase in which is convex and a phase where it's concave. and you can have it, you know, convex concave and then convex again, like the one at the bottom for example going to a lecture at NYU is pleasant, okay, great you can invite a friend. It's a great thing, but two lectures are alright and twenty lectures it's a negative, you see? So you have this is those response okay? What is interesting is that the convex part of the response means you want to have volatility right? There people don't quite get, for example, that you should vary within the place you should have some randomness. 

Doctors aren't getting it because they can't, I'm just discovering from my fight over GMOs that, they're not too much into into equations, all right? But then you can show it that anything in medicine that has nonlinear response, all right, should respond to uncertainty. And we have evidence from I...I...I... for antifragile I.. I found 200 papers showing evidence, but they're not grouped together. For example lung ventilators, instead of giving right there instead of giving someone one hundred percent of the dose, you vary eighty percent- one hundred twenty percent, you have a convex response, okay? You do better and effectively people survive better.

It's the same thing with your your heart. The way you can predict someone's going to die is if their heart heart beats too regular. So same thing with with a gym. Same thing with feeding, alright? If you don't starve people.. religions know that, of protein, they get cancer so it's a second-order effect that matters more than first-order effect. 

When people studied Greece, and diet and medicine for example ,they look at what people eat. No morons, look at how frequently they eat right? They only had meats on on celebration days. And that was not just a Greek Orthodox Church that was from. You read any book on on ancient Greece, how they ate, they ate meat on festivals okay? But then they ate a lot of it. So they have, there is, definitely a convexity effect in that. And then, days when you don't eat meat, you cannibalize some of your bad thing, and you lower your cancer rate. It's in the literature but they don't get the universality of the point that everything that's convex likes variability. So okay, so I finished with one idea.